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COVID -19 and Black Desert Online

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Stabby, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. T800

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    So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.

    In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China

    It spread similar to Flue, but has mortality rate 46x higher.

    And if one saw how fast it spread in Italy and South Korea - one might understand why WHO and CDC are worried about it more than a flue.
     
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  2. Jupto

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    Im happy that i am a NERD and you know why? Cause Nerds stay Inside alone. Tho, im sad about those who does get sick.
     
  3. Luminosity

    Luminosity Valkyrie 63

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    That is not how sample size works though. Sample size needs to big big enough in comparison to the chance. While for a coin flip 200 flips already give you a rather good 50/50, Elten piece farming might not even drop until the 1 million kills, because the the chance is too small. So for a coin flip a sample size of 200 is already pretty good, while for the elten piece a sample size of 1 million is still rather low.
    And as corona already kill over 2000 people the sample size is more than good enough to make a plausbilae statement about the mortality rate in general. Maybe your ethinicity can further shift the chance around due to certain groups being more or less resistant to it, because of different environmental influences.
    So the point is if both outcomes (success/ failure) already happened several thousand times the empiric chance you get from this should be rather accurate. And the more even the chances for success and failure are the less sample size you need to get both results in a high enough quantity to ensure you are not just on a lucky/unlucky streak but it actually legitimately occurs in this ratio.
    So for an event that only happens one in 500million times even your flu sample size would be way too low. As in case of it not happening even once you would get an empiric chance of just 0 while we a lucky streak of it happening 10 times in this sample size you would overestimate the chance by several times.

    So looking at this example from ingame farming:

    [​IMG]

    The total sample size is just 48k. The number of drops just 188. The chance is 1 in 257. So even lower than the fatility rate of corona. Now look what happens.

    The light green is the number of kills since the last Armor dropped. It is shifting up and down all over the place, but...
    The blue line(the total average up to that point, so blue dot at drop 102 is the total avg at up to the 102nd drop) is getting close to a certain value after just about 70 drops already. then continuing to mildly shift up and down around the total average(of the entire sample size), the red line. Would you say that this sample size is too small to come to the conclusion, that the dropchance is about 1 in 288 +- a little? Or do you think this graph is at one point at 500k drop suddenly turning into a straight line at not about 1 in 288 klills but at about 570kills? Meaning that the estimated chance so far has been completely off.
     
    #43 Luminosity, Feb 29, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020
  4. Findubar

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    You touched on the subject yourself but you did not realize it. Try again.
    Ask yourself why are people so panicked about a disease that it's statistically impossible to kill you while nobody cared about the one that was extremely likely to do so.
     
  5. Luminosity

    Luminosity Valkyrie 63

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    Ebola was not likely to kill you(you as in, you as european or american) as it was not spreading. People that get it die so fast and so likely that they can not spread it as they are quickly being transfered into quarantine. Why would someone "care" about a virus that is not spreading to where he lives? Of course you could donate into research regarding that and "care" in that way, but an ebola outbreak in africa certainly did not threaten you in europe or the us.
    I do not care about scorpions in my shoes, even though you can easily die from not checking your shoes in other parts of the world. There are no scorpions where I live.
    Corona on the other hand already got here and from day to day the new case numbers are going up. So why should I ignore the possibility of it spreading to my workplace or somewhere in my family?
     
  6. Findubar

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    Coronavirus is also not likely to kill you. So why the panic?
    The socioeconomic implications of covid vs ebola are intriguing.
     
  7. Stabby

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    There, fixed.

    upload_2020-2-29_11-4-0.png
     
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  8. T800

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    1.

    [​IMG]

    In light of the recent and ongoing global developments surrounding the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, we have taken the decision to cancel this year’s Fanfest event in Reykjavik, Iceland.



    2.

    Blizzard will no longer attend this year’s
    @Official_GDC due to growing concerns related to COVID-19. The health and well-being of our teams is our highest priority.



    3.

    [​IMG]

    After close consultation with our partners in the game development industry and community around the world, we’ve made the difficult decision to postpone the Game Developers Conference this March.



    What's next? E3? Tokyo Olympics?


     
  9. Stabby

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    I believe GDC has been cancelled all together. Edit: NVM you said that at the bottom.
     
    T800 likes this.
  10. Columba

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    "Coronovirus is just a democratic hoax. It's no worse than the common cold!" Bone Spurs, MD
     
  11. Exiled

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    dont you think ppl should learn to share it aswell? cuz in the end sharing is caring
     
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  12. Alextrazsa

    Alextrazsa Sorceress EU

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    Omfg people.

    Every year worldwide: 500 million people are infected with the influenza virus. 290 000-650 000 are dieing because of it every year.

    Nobody will talk about it in a couple of month. The only winners are those people who made a lot of money from this ****.
     
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  13. T800

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    If we put the current death rate, and your 500 million people together, we will get 10 - 15 000 000 people will die from this virus every year.

    But the current death rate will increase, as Hospital will be overwhelmed with patients needing beds - and unlike China, we can't build hospitals in 2 weeks. That's why we have to do everything we can to stop the spread of the virus.
     
  14. Corrus

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    When there were 16 corona patients in Germany, out of those 15 were healed without trouble. And they were not at a Special hospital, they were home quarantined.
    Stop hyping it up
     
  15. LesserHellspawn

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    So far Covid for the most part kills primarily old men who were sick from some other respiratory disease to begin with. It will roll over the whole world because it's both highly contagious, but also in most cases very mild. A lot of infected don't even get any symptoms, yet are contagious. Sooner or later we'll have a vaccine against it. The only real but small danger is the virus mutating into something far more lethal.
     
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  16. T800

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    You can follow an actual case of a young Nurse in Wuhan, that got infected and had to be hospitalized:
    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL4LNQSJOtK8Yl9ScWae31bGb-r1ebC7JA

    Or search the news about that young Whistle-blower doctor from Wuhan, that unfortunately succumbed to the virus too.

    It's not just the elderly that can have serious consequences from the virus.

    As for Vaccine, it won't be here for another 18 month, and won't be free either.
     
  17. LesserHellspawn

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    I didn't say it was only older men. On the plus side, there has not been a single report of any children seriously ill or even dead, unless I missed any.
     
  18. T800

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    There are a lot of unknowns about covid-19 - but we know it's deadly especially with older people or people with compromised immune systems.

    Also there are 3 cases of re-currance- one well documented in Japan, of a patient who tested positive, was quarantined in the hospital, recovered and released after 2 weeks. Her symptoms were mild.
    Same patient came back with more severe symptoms after a week and tested positive with the same covid-19 strain.

    Also outside of the virologist circles nobody is even talking about covid-19 mutation which could make it even worse (or not as bad).

    We just don't know what we are dealing with yet - and as pointed out no vaccines makes it a risk.


    Also in case of a pandemic in US (pretty much a case of when not if) - CDC warns that 70%-80% of US population would be infected over the course of a year, as one CDC staff put it - the realistic expectation is that you are probably going to get the virus, that should be the base expectations not the opposite.

    CDC is the voice of reason in this world of infections - if we stop listening to CDC, we will only make things worse.
     
  19. T800

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    Above were my own speculation mixed with CNN report, but now some facts from W H O:
    Sauce: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/


    The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health. Here is the press conference on Youtube: and the final report of the commission as PDF after they visited Beijing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Here are some interesting facts about Covid that I have not yet read in the media:

    • When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet.

    • 5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over. The province of Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, had 65,596 infected persons so far. A total of 40,000 employees were sent to Hubei from other provinces to help fight the epidemic. 45 hospitals in Wuhan are caring for Covid patients, 6 of which are for patients in critical condition and 39 are caring for seriously ill patients and for infected people over the age of 65. Two makeshift hospitals with 2,600 beds were built within a short time. 80% of the infected have mild disease, ten temporary hospitals were set up in gymnasiums and exhibition halls for those.

    • China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus.

    • The vast majority of those infected sooner or later develop symptoms. Cases of people in whom the virus has been detected and who do not have symptoms at that time are rare - and most of them fall ill in the next few days.

    • The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

    • An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere.

    • Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases. The most important thing is firstly to aggressively contain the spread of the virus in order to keep the number of seriously ill Covid patients low and secondly to increase the number of beds (including material and personnel) until there is enough for the seriously ill. China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago.

    • Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer. Infected persons without a relevant previous illness died in 1.4% of cases.

    • Age: The younger you are, the less likely you are to be infected and the less likely you are to fall seriously ill if you do get infected:
    Age Percent Fatality
    0-9 ...... . 0,9%..... 0 until now
    10-19..... 1,2%..... 0.1%
    20-29..... 8,1%..... 0.2%
    30-39..... 17.0%..... 0.2%
    40-49..... 19.2%..... 0.4%
    50-59..... 22.4%..... 1.3%
    60-69..... 19.2%..... 3.6%
    70-79..... 8.8%..... 8.0%
    80+..... 3.2%..... 14.8%
    Read: Of those infected in China, 8.1% were between 20 and 29 years old (this does not mean that 8.1% of people between 20 and 29 become infected). Of those infected in this age group, 0.2% died.

    • Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died. The disease appears to be not more severe in pregnant women than in others. In 9 examined births of infected women, the children were born by caesarean section and healthy without being infected themselves. The women were infected in the last trimester of pregnancy. What effect an infection in the first or second trimester has on embryos is currently unclear as these children are still unborn.

    • The new virus is genetically 96% identical to a known coronavirus in bats and 86-92% identical to a coronavirus in pangolin. Therefore, the transmission of a mutated virus from animals to humans is the most likely cause of the appearance of the new virus.

    • Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says. The authors conclude this from their own experience on site, declining hospital visits in the affected regions, the increasing number of unoccupied hospital beds, and the problems of Chinese scientists to recruit enough newly infected for the clinical studies of the numerous drug trials. Here is the relevant part of the press conference about the decline assessment.

    • One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.
    Finally, a few direct quotes from the report:

    "China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak."

    "Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures."

    "COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement."
     
  20. Columba

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    1/16 is a 6% mortality rate. about 60 times higher than the flu....
     

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