The displayed chance of success is categorically, factually, beyond luck - false. I don't mind failing PEN 50 times at 2% because it's a 2% chance of success. If you are honest about it, great. I do however have a problem with displaying a chance of success that is intentionally deceptive and provably false. I have failed with 36 Tungrad Earrings all with a displayed chance of success of 70-80%. I haven't even gotten a DUO out of that. For the sake of math simplicity and giving KK even more benefit of the doubt, let's pretend that the displayed chance of success was 50%, making it a coin toss. The probability of flipping heads 18 times in a row is 1 in 262,144. In actuality the displayed chance of success was always 71% or higher, so that makes the probability of the displayed chance of success being correct way more astronomical than 1 in 262k. It is almost mathematically impossible that the displayed chance of success is correct. 36 Tungrad Earrings is not "bad RNG", 18 fails in a row of "80%" is not bad luck - it's fake. There's a hidden real chance of success that has got to be closer to 10% than 80%. And that is really frustrating. Thank you for coming to my Tilt Talk. It's just one of the moments where I have to stop and consider if I can keep playing this game, and I just had to vent my frustrations.

I failed 5 tri ogre rings with chance of 43%.. I agree with you! I guess if you look at the % server wide it's maybe true.. I dunno really :-(

There is no MMO I'm aware of where the RNG is purely random. For the most part RNG is seeded in some way, and the results are simulated and generally open to manipulation by either the developer or the player (or both). I'm not sure exactly what to make of the percentages displayed by BDO but they are very clearly not indicative of pure chance. These types of games aren't designed that way. How Pearl Abyss is manipulating the chances specifically, I don't know - but I'm confident they're doing so in one way or another. It's industry standard.

You know that this is not really unlikely? In a chain of 200 coinflips its actually really really likely to have 5+ heads or tails in a row. That is also how you can, to a high likelyhood, detect whether or not someone actually tossed a coin 200 times or tried to make "randomized" fakedata. Since our brain does not expect 7 tails in row in something that is supposed to be random. However if you go higher and higher with the chain fails its gets absurd really fast. I myself did need 26 tries to hit duo manos cloths a single ****ing time. That means 25 fails in row with a fixed chance of 75% to fail. That has a 0,075% chance to happen. That is when you should start doubting the rng.

I’ve failed on Tri attempts for a Loggia Fishing Outfit 40 times (30%) now. Mathematically it’s’ nearly impossible to perform this feat,,,

for every player failing 30 time in a row there is one who get it on first try the % is not your % its our % base of 1000000000000000000000000000000000 enhancing try made by all players... https://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics2/normaldistribution.htm

This is just from my experience, if I can’t build a 20FS with rebalt +14 from popping on 13-18 then I call it a day and stop the session, and save my stone. Becuase you know it will be some ******** enchant session if your rebalth decide to be cool kid and proc on 3.50%

Yea the % shown on enhance isnt your pwrsonal % but a serwer wide one. So lest say 10 players do the same in a same time 3 of them will fail 7 will succes. It will happen in seconds and next the whole circle will repeat. So if you are unlucky you will hit the fail wave multiple time and if not you will hit pen at 2% chance at the first attempt. BDO RNG HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH MATH. There are only server parameters that can be freely changed by devs.

on the other hand, regarding reblath, ive hit +14>+15 on 0fs (1from journal) even 3 times in a row few times. that screams bullshiet in my eyes.

1. Learn probability calculation correctly. It's not 2%+2%= 4% and its not even simply multiplicate the results .. maybe you have heard from Laplace for example. 2. Forget everything about math and probability= My first point. This game has an own written code for the calculation, not mentioned all the hidden variables you might know or might not know. Since years people trying to find a pattern with every tinfoil you can imagine. This thing is pure chaos theory.

Everybody knows you have increased succes rates if you use Cron Stones from costume melting ( not from Blacksmith !! ) That's why every whales are full PEN. They melt dozens of costumes and tap all their TET gear into PEN easily

I have never really understood the % of BDO, no matter what we talk about. 10% life skill is depending if the Moon is Red, do you wear undies, how high are you in level, when did you last do the laundry etc. etc. it's like that with everything. I really gave up on all that lol.

its only probabilities base on a Random Number Generator software the one online casinos use. BDO is/was entirely build on top of an RNG software. the cost of production was 1 millions USD because every single line of code have a RNG outcome. it could be done/coded with student coming right out of school. at a very cheep price. the world was randomly generated and populated by/with an home made voxel software to save money. over the years some of that Randomness was circumvented. but is still hard coded into the game. this is why they can't modify the terrain. but only add stuff on top of it. most of the cool feature the Alpha version had was abandoned for money reason. for example: workshop were suppose to be open. but for time and money reason got instanced. since the game is RNG base like a casino it could generate billion of USD in revenue for very little investment. 1 million in 1 billion out. and that mentality is still there. the dev will spend VERY little money in new features in hope to make very huge profit with said feature.. the great expedition development cost was probably $25.000 USD and they will try to make millions with it. the enhancement rate are rigged because they want you to spend money.