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High-end play determined ONLY by luck?

Discussion in 'General Gameplay' started by Janus, Oct 13, 2017.

  1. Janus

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    Up front: I am not really talking about the 80% of mid-range players but this question addresses the high end.

    Assumptions:
    - "Hardcore" players (12 hours per day active playtime) make approx 200M silver a day, "casuals" 200M in a week (actively playing 1-2 hours per day)
    - TRI yellow accessories and TET boss gear is what most hardcore players have already, TET accessories or PEN gear is what the high-end players are working on,
    - Few to none get sold on market so people pretty much need to enchant them themselves.
    - With high failstacks, statisticially/theoretically 6 tries should be needed to succeed enchantment and with accessories one needs 2 items each try (cron stones can help a little but have downsides too). But there is high variance so it could also be 1 or 15+ tries...
    - An added enchant level gives 3-8 additional points gearscore; 20+ better gearscore (especially AP) results in a significant advantage, below that it is not too impactful on high levels.

    Looking at this, it seems like a lucky streak (or whatever else might cause this... tinfoil theories abound) can lead to one player having a significant advantage after 2-3 months playtime while the average-lucky player would require 6-8 months and the unlucky ones (example of 15 fails in a row) will need 1.5+ years to reach the same point.

    If the above is right, doesn't it mean that the whole "progression" on high levels is solely determined by enchant luck? Complete lottery? People can play their assess off, without enchant luck it seems that they will completely stagnate for at least half a year and possibly a lot longer (or until eventually somebody in the game-design team considers this problematic, too, and changes it), right?

    If this is really the case, does anybody know if some improvement of the system is to be expected (e.g. based on the state of the game in Korea)? Or am I missing some important fact?


    P.S. I guess the same problem applies to casual players on DUO to TRI accessory and TET boss gear levels, too. So, maybe this question is not only for the high-end players...
     
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  2. CreepingCthulhu

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    this is korean mmo. period.

    if you dont like this fact, you are welcome to wow, where you can strive for absolutely nonrandom end boss titanforged trinket that boosts your dps by 30% alone or try to get proper top-tier legendary. completly non-random and so much deserved. and dont forget, that after you farmed it for 6 months there comes new patch that nullifies all your achievments and gives your another completly non-random trinket to farm.
     
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  3. kakodaimonos

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    Let's think about GW2. That would work. No luck needed and still tons progression in there.
     
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  4. CreepingCthulhu

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    ah, indeed, theme-park game with high end content being skins and jump puzzles. so sexy
     
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  5. Yoshimaru

    Yoshimaru Maehwa 63

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    Can't say I wouldn't enjoy daily jump challenges in BDO for the fun. Random box with some minor rewards inside would do.
     
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  6. Lystra

    Lystra IaIatina Wizard 62 EU

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    Your numbers are bit skewed, i doubt anyone consistently makes 200M/Day even on Top Tier Hardcore level. And if so, there is maximum handful of such players by now.

    Anyway you're right that Luck can make a difference, but when you keep at it and try and try you will eventually get where you need to be. There is no time limit and people break their stuff rather often so it's up-and-down all the time.
     
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  7. WastedJoker

    WastedJoker Striker 61 EU

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    A theme park MMO is one where your levelling takes you around various different environs on a linear path. BDO content is gated by story quests in a very similar way.

    There's a new lifeskill for climbing coming to BDO, in case you didn't know.

    And this week we were told no patches but there will be pearl shop updates.

    Now, where do your criticisms stand?
     
  8. ambyentlight

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    yep apart from leveling rest is just pure rng.
     
  9. bloodku

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    casuals make 200M a week? 1-2hrs a day? do tell
     
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  10. CreepingCthulhu

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    al-rhundi room>monastery>refugee camp>marni>helms>sausan.
    quests? there are quests except grabbing bheg scroll from black spirit every morning?
     
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  11. Janus

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    Well, I didn't want to get too far off-topic here, but since we are having a lively discussion on theme-park vs open-world, WOW and GW2, quests etc in this thread already, it doesn't hurt to comment on this:
    Usually at least 5M per day on average are coming in from all the free stuff that we get (attendance reward, board game, other RNG boxes, house fame fund, etc). Another 5-10M should come in also for casual players from their workers and selling the raw materials (even without further processing). Another 5M should be possible from afk activities like fishing (assuming that casuals don't leave the computer on over night - then it would be more). And 10-15M should be doable for casuals when grinding for 1-2 hours. Instead of grinding one could also cook or do alchemy and do imperial delivery, but that can be a bit annoying for casuals if they didn't hit the reset-time of the quota.
    Or just one port-ratt trade run, but that requires more time and more prep (e.g. high trade levels) than casuals usually have. This might be for semi-casuals, which could instead also grind more (e.g. elites).

    I also think that 200M per day for hardcore players is not really far off if summing up everything. 20M passive income, 20M imperial, 5M freebies, 10M afk during night, 13M per hour active time for 11 hours per day (I personally couldn't do that, but I am not "hardcore"^^). 1 hour for repairing, setting up the daily routing etc for imperial, tending farms etc without profit.
     
  12. GamePois0n

    GamePois0n PootyPoot Ranger 61 NA

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    it's luck if you don't understand stats, lol. gear = silver, its cheap until u are softcapped then its 1b per point up to 260ap then its 2b per point up to 280ap and 5b? to 300ap.

    the amount of silver required increases exponentially the more gear you have
    [​IMG]
    image taken off from the internet showing the difference between linear and exponential
     
  13. Escapism

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    Afaik, the term themepark is used for games which literally take the players by their hands and guide them through the entire game. Games which are designed to make everything in the game as enjoyable and "fun" as possible (targeted towards large masses, not niche groups) and reducing the amount of mindless grind, endless time sinks and generic boredom many other games, specifically mmo's, have.

    I see most of those things as something good when it comes to game design in general, yet somehow the term themepark is almost exclusively used in negative contexts when speaking about games.
     
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  14. Janus

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    Not sure if that was supposed to be a joke. If it was, ignore the rest of this post.

    First of all, linear vs exponential has nothing to do with the issue that I addressed in my first post. It only has a (small) impact when transfering that problem to the situation of mid-level players, which I didn't focus on in this thread.
    Just to make sure you understand my point, let me repeat: If the assumptions are correct, the issue is with the (too) high impact that enhancing "luck" has on the game. Somebody who is lucky will have a significant gain in short time. Somebody average ("statistically") lucky will need months longer, somebody unlucky will need years. It all comes down to "luck".

    You probably wanted to tell me with the term "you don't understand stats" that I don't understand the probabilities or that statistically, over a very large sample size, results SHOULD be the same for everybody. But:
    a. the "average" that you are referencing doesn't matter for the individual player. Each one individually doesn't get such a large sample-size.
    b. in this context also look up the term "variance", which seems very high in bdo
    c. it is far from assured that the enchant system really is just RNG or that failstacks matter (failstacks would actually be a way to address some of the problem, but they seem to have none or too little effect in bdo)
     
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  15. CreepingCthulhu

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    pls, tell me how reduced grind is in wow.
     
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  16. RedBulliChain

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    I can tell you, you dont have to nolife the game to make 200m a day. I am pretty casual player with 2-3 hours a day, mostly semi afk and doing 150-200m each day. I avoid enhancing, so luck isnt really a factor, only high preorders. 535 GS for reference.

    So to answer your question, you can avoid RNG and invest your time ingelligently to become a top player.
     
  17. Claydough

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    You can only get lucky so many times

    A soft capped player vs a lucky softcapped player who one shot a pen at 80 stacks is more or less still an even fight
     
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  18. Janus

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    Well, that is still below the gear-point that I was refering to (also you said yourself you are casual). I certainly like the idea of avoiding enchanting by buying from market, but that unfortunately doesn't work for such high-end equipment. One can't buy PEN boss-gear of the market and the total of 4 Ogres, 15 Crescents, 14 Basi etc at TET are also not enough. Even some of the TRI accessories could be hard to get from the market.
     
  19. Janus

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    True. If it is only 1 time that there is a deviation from the average, there would be no issue.
    I am more talking about the long-run though and I have seen in others (and experienced myself) lots of 20+ fails in a row streaks on those enchant levels. So at least the existance of "unlucky" compared to what the statistical average should be (6?) and certainly versus such lucky players that get a 1-shot is obvious.
     
  20. Thanak

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    The problem is impact of the luck on futur earning.

    It took me 10 TET attemps my Dande. When I got it, my earning per hour increased signficantly which then gave my more fund to improved my other gear.

    If I got lucky early, then I would have made more money which mean overall better gear.

    So yeah luck play a significant part. But to be lucky, you need to play . Emotion control to avoid a tilt roulette + rage quit and resilliance to keep on going when you are in a bad streak is more important than anything else.
     
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