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Horse Price Formula

Discussion in 'Horse Training' started by Elynxi, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Elynxi

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    Hey all! This is my first post on the BDO forums but some of you may know me as Elynxi on the horse Discord channels :)

    I recently set myself the challenge of trying to figure out exactly how the horse market calculates prices (for another project that I'll share in the future if I ever reach that goal!). I know a few people have got pretty close on T8 level 30 prices (shoutout to @Sad Panda) but I was determined to make something that would work for any tier and level, with 100% accuracy.

    So to start off, here's a few things that don't affect the price of a horse:
    - Coat colours
    - Stats (hp, stamina, weight, speed, accel, turn, brake)
    - Deaths (unless it's at specific breakpoints, will test this later)
    - Exp towards the next level
    - Names (leave no stone unturned!)

    And here's the formula I've come up with so far:
    (((TierBaseValue + (TierLevelValue * Level)) * GenderMod * BreedMod * ResetMod) + (SkillValue * 0.3 * Tier)) * CourserMod

    TierBaseValue
    This is the value of each tier if the horse was level 0 and had no skills or modifiers applied (the starting point). I couldn't find a pattern between the tiers so I figure they must just be predefined values.
    - T1 = 10,000
    - T2 = 15,000
    - T3 = 45,000
    - T4 = 135,000
    - T5 = 270,000
    - T6 = 3,240,000
    - T7 = 22,680,000
    - T8 = 68,040,000
    - T1 Stable Shop Horse: 3,000

    TierLevelValue
    This is how much the price increases per level (before modifiers). It's calculated as a percentage of the TierBaseValue, starting at 0.09 for T1 and decreasing by 0.01 per tier, so the formula is: (0.1 - (Tier/100)) * TierBaseValue
    - T1 = 900
    - T2 = 1,200
    - T3 = 3,150
    - T4 = 8,100
    - T5 = 13,500
    - T6 = 129,600
    - T7 = 680,400
    - T8 = 1,360,800
    - T1 Stable Shop Horse: 1,200

    GenderMod
    Females gain 20% more of the base+levels value. Girl power! :D
    - F = 1.2
    - M = 1.0

    BreedMod
    The base+levels value decreases by 25% if the horse has 0 breeds left, or 12.5% if it's a male with 1 breed. A formula for this would be: 1 - ((1 - (breeds/maxBreeds)) * 0.25)
    - F: 1 breed = 1.0, 0 breeds = 0.75
    - M: 2 breeds = 1.0, 1 breed = 0.875, 0 breeds = 0.75
    - T1 Stable Shop Horse: 1 breed = 1.0, 0 breeds = 0.75

    ResetMod
    The base+levels value decreases by 20% if the breed reset is no longer available.
    - Unable to Reset = 0.8
    - Able to Reset = 1.0

    SkillValue
    This is the sum of all the horse's skills, based on values that were found by others (thanks to @FluffyQuack for providing me with these!).
    - HK = 4,350
    - FC = 4,350
    - Dr = 2,320,500
    - Sp = 3,315,000
    - SA = 4,350
    - HJ = 86,400
    - QS = 105,600
    - IA = 2,320,500
    - Ch = 1,530,000
    - LM = 3,836,250
    - QB = 79,200
    - SL = 144,000
    - Ro = 264,000 (this was originally 264,400 but I found removing the extra 400 to be accurate)
    - Ca = 4,350
    - QR = 86,625 (Quick Ride seems to be the cause of some of the rounding problems)
    - S:HK = 226,800
    - S:FK = 226,800
    - S:IA = 10,687,500
    - S:SM = 10,687,500
    - TS = 4,972,500

    CourserMod
    Coursers gain 20% of the overall price
    - Courser: 1.2
    - Non-Courser: 1.0

    Known Caveats:
    - The formula seems to have a margin of error of about +/- 4 silver, which I think is due to the game rounding some numbers somewhere. Need to look into that!
    - For some unknown reason, the formula doesn't work for T1 males that have 1 breed left. It works for other tiers and other T1 gender/breed combinations, just not that one (still need to check T1 male with 0 breeds though). These were T1s bought from the stable shop (thanks @Shaynae for the idea!). They have a base value of 3000, level value of 1200 and max breeds of 1, which makes the formula work for them.

    Here's a link to my spreadsheet for anyone interested: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o7_N2cf0Yc_ad9Pf-3FaQCV3mYlCfV-PjBmrh89MgM8/edit?usp=sharing
    I welcome any help in trying to fix the above problems so that we can hopefully make it 100% accurate ^^

    And finally, a big thanks to @Wolfseer for all the T6-8 horses she showed me as test data <3
     
    #1 Elynxi, Jul 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2017
  2. Sad Panda

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    Grats on your very first forum post and completely blowing my efforts out of the water! I'm about to peek at that tasty formula
    :D
     
    Elynxi likes this.
  3. Wolfseer

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    Very well done! I'm not a huge math person, so when I see things like this I'm always blown away. Also, I'm glad I was able to help out a bit, even if it was just sending in some data lol. Again, very nice work!
    :)
     
    Elynxi likes this.
  4. Shaynae

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    Could the T1 males with one breed left have something to do with the T1s you can buy at the Stable Master? I know those T1s are strange and I wonder if that's a clue to the T1 male pricing anomaly.
     
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  5. Elynxi

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    Ooooh yes! That sounds very plausible, good thinking :D
     
  6. Fayith

    Fayith Synaiel Sorceress 49 EU

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    What an amazing work! (:

    Should totally go to the Compendium of bookmarks or Horses FAQ (Idk which one!) once it's 100% accurate.
     
    Elynxi likes this.
  7. Sidina

    Sidina Lahn 61 EU

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    It is really amazing!
    Great job you did there. I am a little too tired today to really understand everything but tomorrow I will give it another go :-)
    Looks really interesting <3
     
    Elynxi likes this.
  8. Sad Panda

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  9. Lady Minuit

    Lady Minuit DeMinuit Kunoichi 61 NA

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    For science!
     
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  10. Horse Breeder Ralphy

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    Great work.

    However perhaps I'm doing something wrong.

    I've taken a few examples from Sad Panda's https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...f-6GU4mG-CExX6xpu_F10_mdw/edit#gid=1419896353 and manually calculated based on your formulas. While some of them were very close, some were significantly off. Especially when I sorted to find the lowest priced horses, calculated by your formulas, and was off by 10-20 million.

    Not a dig by any means. But going off Sad Panda's spreadsheet, and selecting the lowest priced horses, using those stats(tier, level, skills learned, etc) and using your formulas, the horses should have been sold at 10-20 million more.

    I even accounted for the Breeds Left being calculated by base value, versus Resets left. Which those two need to be accounted for.. ie.. zero breeds left states .75 of base value, whereas zero resets are .8 of base value. One of those needs to precede the other. They both can't affect base value. One has to come before the other. Especially when zero resets results in .8 base value, which gives a higher overall value than zero breeds which gives (with our without resets) a .75 base value. A zero breed with zero resets should be less than a zero breed with 1 reset.

    And based on your formulas, the lowest priced T8 should be around 85 mil. Whereas we've seen 79 mil T8/30 horses.

    Not knocking your attempts by any means (cuz yes, I love what you're doing). But there's a flaw somewhere.

    Personally, I think the flaw is that the breed count/breed reset count, is not a percentage based calculation against the base value. But a fixed value based on tier. That might be worth investigating.
     
    #10 Horse Breeder Ralphy, Jul 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2017
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  11. Elynxi

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    No worries, it's great to get some feedback because it's not perfect yet :D

    If I understand you correctly, I think you're applying either the breed modifier or the reset modifier but not both? They're intended to be multiplied together, so that means with no breeds left and no reset available you'd get 0.75 * 0.8 = 0.6 (which is then multiplied by the base+levels value).

    The cheapest possible T8 should be 41,650,920 (level 1 male with no breeds, no resets and only the cheapest skill). Or 65,328,840 at level 30 :)
     
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  12. Sad Panda

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    That's Lady Minuit's sheet, I am only helping to add horses ^
     
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  13. Lady Minuit

    Lady Minuit DeMinuit Kunoichi 61 NA

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    Thanks Panda.. you've been helping me a lot lately, so thanks again for your support with this project.
     
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  14. Horse Breeder Ralphy

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    I took a couple of examples (using the 2 lowest priced horses), and did just that. I tried multiplying them together as well as trying to take the most extreme. Either way the results seemed to be off. To be fair, for the most part it did work rather accurately within the average ranges. However it was just the extreme ends that didn't work as well as it should.

    What you came up with, IMHO, is pretty friggin close. But I think there's a variable that hasn't been accounted for yet. Perhaps a Purebred Color coat factor that isn't quite as obvious? ie.. Out of all T8s, purebreds don't get the Two Seater skill, which should account for a lack of increased value for not having that skill, but they typically sell for more than non-purebreed coats.

    And to be honest, I have my own project going on which makes me reluctant to look further into it (my brain is pretty much dead as it is with my own projects).

    Love what you're doing, and hope you keep working on it. By no means am I questioning what you're doing. I actually support it very strongly.
     
    #14 Horse Breeder Ralphy, Jul 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2017
  15. Elynxi

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    @Horse Breeder Ralphy I just realised there was a small bug in the Gender Modifier cell on the Calculator page (left over from when I was figuring stuff out). It should be: =1+IF((C5="F"),0.2,0)

    Does that fix your prices?
     
  16. Horse Breeder Ralphy

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    That just may! In fact, I bet it would. I'm juggling a bunch of things around at the current moment, but I'll try again later tonight. But I think that change may very well be it.
     
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  17. Horse Breeder Ralphy

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    Drat, forgot to follow up (sorry, got sidetracked with work and overtime forgot). Every test I've thrown at it, your horse price formula seems to be very spot on.
     
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  18. Amarenda

    Amarenda Talshani Witch 61 NA
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    1st post???? Well time to get busy! :)
     
  19. Markeyx

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    Have horse price been buffed in the last 6 months because your calculation seems to be way off now when I compare it some of my horses sale value. I even entered the my horses into your spread sheet and on my T7 male the value came out with just under 42mil, but on the market I get a value of 61.3mil.
     
  20. Amarenda

    Amarenda Talshani Witch 61 NA
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    They were increased alot recently. Wish they had increased coursers only. Now everything is just sitting there cause it's too expensive to buy even potatoes :(
     

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