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Lost 7 bil trying get TRI

Discussion in 'General Gameplay' started by Zaoo, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. Kynreaa

    Kynreaa DarkKnight 62

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    Its fluid..It depends on the victim and circumstance. It can be in your favor, or against depending on your habits. There are other videos explaining how the bot has performed, and its rate of accuracy.

    But honestly I couldn't care less..I just wanna see @Smileybones supposed evidence. He has mine, and he can even dismiss it. But what "evidence" has he placed for critique so far that he clings so much to?
     
  2. Boink

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    So it just comes out of "convenience"? Habits as in the frequency of your betting patterns? So somehow this happened because the player in question decided to try and make a TRI and lost 7 billion when it only costs 3 billion and a rigged RNG want him ti swipe.... for more Accessories? What a surprise this happened a lot in Casino's specially playing on payouts on slot machines designed to keep players for TRYING to hit that ultimate jackpot? Same as PEN? By the way these swings are real in any game of chance. There are hot seat, bad lucks.

    We gave you plenty of evidence how the marketplace reacts and works with the % except the value of PEN Weapons/Armor and Accessories.

    What I don't understand which you also pointed out is that is that because of our "habits". If it generally costs about 3 billion to get to TRI can he just create a pattern where if he made DUO's he can use that as a guide or estimate on what he can wager. IF he made a string of DUO's he can bet 29-40% of said DUO's and he can sell the rest if he failed and still get a TRI accessory.

    Trust me I'm about to do the same thing when i get enough for a PEN accessory stack. Coz I just want my name on mine. Sounds like a bad habit to me. Although in general gambling is really a bad habit :)
     
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  3. Diepel

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    If you claim it is rigged, burden of proof is on the one calling it is rigged. Otherwise I assume the null hypothesis. It is staggering that you guys have no idea about the scientific method.

    Null hypothesis is: the chances are accurate.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)

    Please educate yourself.

    And even tho the burden is on you I provided evidence that if anything the chances are actually higher than displayed since you will make profit in the long run. Guess why people enhance for profit. Would not work if the calculations were rigged. Of course you would argue that people have a Zero idea how to effectively enhance. So in the end we would be at the status quo again. People who actually understand statistics make a Ton of money in bdo. Just look at biohack. The others claim it is rigged. Cant be my own fault right?

    Simple math, simple Finance. You guys probably never bought any assets in real life I guess. That is why I have a problem when illiterate subjects make fantastic claims when they have no idea what they are talking about.
     
    #183 Diepel, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  4. Kynreaa

    Kynreaa DarkKnight 62

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    "We gave you plenty of evidence how the marketplace reacts and works with the % except the value of PEN Weapons/Armor and Accessories."


    Well, another flaw in that line of thinking is assuming the market is even remotely free..That crap is about as regulated an rigged as the enhancement system..If you cant see that, then well I dunno what to tell you.
     
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  5. Diepel

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    You only have a problem when there is market failure, which is Not the case for the vast majority of accessories. I like how we want to embarass ourselves now in economics.

    Guess when the market did fail? The old one. The current one is very liberal and for the relevant accessories in principle free, since the price ranges are wide enough.

    When do we see market failure? When items are not listed anymore (was the case in the old market. Prices too restrictive, no point in participating. Empty supermarket shelves in communist states e.g. DDR back in the day). This is currently not the case. Market reflects for a wide range of items the value people See in them.

    The easiest way of PA 'rigging' the game is to change supply. This is actually happening and no conspiracy theory. There is absolutely no need to rig any numbers, since supply is a much bigger leverage. But I guess this is not cool enough for fellow conspiracy theorists. It has to be Hidden so that the evil PA narrative works and of course If you reveal something hidden it automatically makes you a big brain.
     
    #185 Diepel, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  6. Factorial

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    Nope. That's not how it works. The onus is always on the prosecution. You don't agree with my opinion so you either prove it wrong or move along. All I expressed was doubt because things seem fishy. As such, I don't know if I am right or wrong. Why? I have no real way of looking at the code in bdo to decipher what is really happening. None of us do.

    The elegant thing here is that I don't know if you are right or wrong. All I know is that you are using tainted data to come to a definitive solution. That's a big problem that propagates with every iteration of your analysis with compounding inaccuracies. I wouldn't do that.

    You are different though because you became the architect of your own trap by claiming absolute knowledge of the rates being true yet having no way of actually proving it without guess work and bad faith premises. You are stuck between the proverbial hard place and a rock.

    I am wishing you good luck that you are able to find a way to utterly prove me wrong. I really hope you can.

    The other side calls me stupid, which is true between the hours of 8pm to 11pm, but for some reason they can't understand this little nugget. It's the entire crux of the problem here.
     
  7. Boink

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    As in there are no highs and lows in the marketplace? Or centralized limit?

    If what you suggest of a rigged system doesn't that average limit increase due to it's difficulty somewhere in the region of 7 billion and zero Tri Accessory Fits well with the OP's "rigged value.

    Or does it conform with it's average value or say base value. It looks like it does. In fact sometimes it goes up and down depending on the influx of the base item.

    I'm looking at it mathematically but I seriously don't know what you looking at. Please direct us with your evidence.
     
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  8. RandomHajile

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    Yeah, it's cool that you can take one line out of context and excuse yourself from trying to refute my points or even run them through your mind. haha.

    BTW: I said none of the things you said. I said asking for or calling something empirical evidence is a joke. Esp in a game when you think the 'status quo'/fact/evidence is a number displayed on the screen. Try thinking for yourself sometimes and don't get so caught up in one side or the other. You might find that you end up a lot more knowledgeable. Although, to be fair, you might be young... why I don't come to forums, etc.

    Statistics probably wouldn't exist if there were 100% certainties. The thing is, there should be no range. Like if you say there is a country where it rains 25-35% of the time (prol around what we enhance at if doing srs biz), all the climate is the same, and it rains 22% of the time some places, 40% of the time some places... then in one region it rains 5% of the time. How long before you start to question whether that is the same climate?

    I dunno, I feel like I'm wasting my time tho, you're right. It's just sad to see people believing they are smart and being so narrow minded.
     
  9. Smileybones

    Smileybones Ranger 62 NA

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    Why don't you all seek advice from knowledgeable players that mass enhance for a living such as Biohack is beyond me.

    And you people open your mouth about statistics and empirical evidence when there's plenty to be found, sigh.
     
  10. RandomHajile

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    arite bud, last post in this thread.

    I enhance. - shrug - I'm moderately successful, I think? That doesn't mean my experience goes for everyone who plays the game or that people who are getting shafted super hard aren't getting shafted by design, or those who are getting rewarded are getting rewarded by design, opposed to something falling within the margin of error, or even as an extreme but rare outlier. Boink said not many people enhance, and yet there are many stories of people who fail hard. My point is EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY.

    I find it moderately upsetting how thick headed people are. No one wants to have a spirited discussion or think. People want to draw lines or, worse, maintain the status quo. Like I said to dude, I will direct the same sentiment to you: enjoy your status quo and believing that you have some deep understanding of 'math' or 'science.' I wish I had the words to get through to you, but I apparently do not. If you like, go back and read every one of my posts in this thread though, then decide if you want to amend your statement.
     
  11. Smileybones

    Smileybones Ranger 62 NA

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    You and many people still fail at realising what a sample size is thus draw wrong conclusions based on a tiny sample size + deviant results.

    The lack of understanding of math/science is what makes you a supersitious person instead of a rational person with credible opinions.
     
  12. Diepel

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    Just read the wiki article buddy
     
  13. Diepel

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    The funny thing is that you talk to an information systems researcher who frequently publishes papers on conferences and journals. You are completely out of your depth concerning your evidence claims and understanding of statistics. And did you call me young? Wow, the audacity. No expertise, yet so confident.

    What are your credentials that make you think you can make those fantastic claims.

    This sentence alone disqualifies you already from having any conversation about stats
     
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  14. Waifu_Hunter

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    only 7 times?
     
  15. kaliver

    kaliver KaIiver Valkyrie 61 NA

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    Unfortunately, your tri attempts and my year and a half of failing to get a single upgrade through enhancement -- these are statistically insignificant and really not worth talking about. Sorry you're feeling frustrated. This is what BDO is.
     
  16. Kynreaa

    Kynreaa DarkKnight 62

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    Actually its not...

    "BOSTON (AP) – The Massachusetts Gaming Commission has disqualified the owners of the Plainridge Racecourse from pursuing the state’s sole slots parlor license.

    The commission issued a statement Monday saying Plainridge’s owners failed to present “clear and convincing evidence as to business practices that will likely lead to a successful gaming operation.”

    The decision leaves four other slots applicants."

    "The Commission has determined that Ourway Realty LLC has failed to meet its burden of proof, particularly as to the business practices and the business ability of the applicant to establish and maintain a successful gaming establishment,” the commission’s report said."

    So because PA doesent have to follow any regulations what so ever, the burden of proof IS on them. Otherwise your rely on their benevolence..and well if that get you to "assume the null hypothesis" Then well thats your choice.
    So after watching the video I showed you on what the industry promised to use, and take the hundreds of complaints where real money is lost seriously. I guess for you that means "null hypothesis", for others it doesent.

    I typed early on when I enhance I do it knowing its going to fail even when it says 80%..and it has countless times multiple times in a row, and other times countless times in a row iv succeeded on 2% when it benefits nothing. Iv also felt that the value of the items modifies its chances of going..but none of those theory's matter on how its rigged.

    So until they get some sort of regulatory agency in place to guarantee the customers that they play fair, its assumed they dont..especially if it benefits their pockets not to play fair. (Not offered in Belgium for a reason, and Belgium allows gambling so....) Must mean they dont wanna follow rules.
    "
    Search Results
    Featured snippet from the web
    Online gambling in Belgium has been legal since 2011, unlike many other European countries which have effectively banned all gambling activities online.
    "

    The evidence is in their confession and selling of the items. The burden of proof then is on them to prove otherwise, and they have failed to do so, nor will they unless forced..which is like I typed..Something I couldn't care less about.

    And simple math and finance will tell you..Who ever is employed with PA to control it, gets his check for a reason.
     
    #196 Kynreaa, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  17. Kynreaa

    Kynreaa DarkKnight 62

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    My evidence is in the industry confessing to using a bot, and promising to use said bot to target potential big spenders to entice them to spend more by altering rng results..
     
    #197 Kynreaa, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  18. Waifu_Hunter

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    yea this is why i dont spend money until i get enchant, and when i usually log out after a fail for a bit. Gotta convince the ai you're not gonna whale.
     
  19. Pi4njy

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    I am going to expose my point of view on the "rng" of the game, with it I hope to bring fresh ideas.
    Obviously the BDO market system is not a free system, because prices are not agreed between buyer and seller even if there is a law of supply and demand, because game managers can modify the minimum and maximum prices as appropriate, and there are many more rules that are broken to keep the system healthy, which I will not stop to list.
    It is a completely closed system, controlled by a company and based on its rules. And this is where the enchantment system comes into play. I have never thought that the possibilities of enchantment are individual, if I think that the probability is individual but not the possibility. A note, if someone does not understand the difference between possibility and probability I encourage you to learn it. I think it would be entirely unfeasible for chance to determine the number of objects available in a closed system. This does not mean that the system is rigged or that some are luckier than others. On the other hand, it can explain the consecutive series of successes or errors.
    I try to give an example, imagine that 2 players have a 50% probability of obtaining a single object, the possibility of obtaining it at that given moment of 50%, now imagine that instead of being 2 players there are 10 with different probabilities to obtain that object at the same moment, the possibility decreases, or that it is a single player who tries it at that same moment and its possibility increases.
    It may be wrong and it is a free market, although from what I have seen I do not think so. Definitely for me it is a game and the only thing I am looking for is to have fun, greetings and sorry for my english.
     
  20. Boink

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    Huh? When you think about 50/50 where most casino games have 1-2% edge against players. How do you think they are getting ahead? I tell you because of time against the house with unlimited funds. Players within spending a lot of time in the game are more likely will experience these strings that are so unfavorable with them that makes them go bankrupt or out of funds.

    The numbers are clearly working as intended in this game. The whales however are more likely going to get milk due to the fact with their gear progression and "keeping up" being the best. The gear % are getting difficult to achieve (Blackstar) so those % value are working as intended. As it being rigged there is no need to. Compare to a Casino, PA's structures are so favored to work for them that there is no need to rigged a system. Progressive value to lowering % to hit the ultimate price. Definitely house favored compare to most Casino games including sucker bets.

    60/40 is not even ideal bet patterns against house that has unlimited funds. That pattern of betting more likely leads to bankruptcy. It is only ideal if it's controlled (player controlled), moderation or against good enough paying odds to take the bet.
     

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