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Propability of getting +15

Discussion in 'General Gameplay' started by Zaoo, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. Zaoo

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    You use blackstones to build failstacks with +14 reblath or +14 militia weapon. What FS is effecient to stop? People go usually 20-30 FS.

    Lets get 21 FS with militia.

    0.98 * 0.978 * 0.976 * 0.974 * 0.972 * 0.97 * 0.968 * 0.966 * 0.964 * 0.962 * 0.96 * 0.958 * 0.956 * 0.954 * 0.952 * 0.95 * 0.948 * 0.946 * 0.944 * 0.942 * 0.94 * 0.938

    So you have 39.7% = chance to have 21 failstacks without hitting it to +15 and start over. So around 40% chance of not hitting +15

    Cost of 21fs would be: 48 blackstones total. 50 * 0.40 = 19 blackstones to succeed and rest if for getting +15.
    (190 000 * 50 = 9.5 MIL for stones) + (12 000 * 15 = 130 000 for repairs) = 9.7 MIL to get 20fs.

    If you continue pass 20fs should you duo green armor or continue rablath?

    Lets try get to 27fs:

    With Militia: 0.40 * 0.936 * 0.934 * 0.932 * 0.93 * 0.928 * 0.926 = 26% chance of still having +14

    With 2x PRI green: 0.42 * 0.762 * 0.7385 = 24% chance of still having +14


    Cost of 27fs with militia would be: 100 blackstones total. 100 * 0.26 = 26 blackstones to succeed and rest if for getting +15. (190 000 * 100 = 19 MIL for stones) + (12 000 * 37 = 444 000 for repairs) = 19.5 MIL to get 27fs.

    Cost of 27fs with PRI would be:
    9.7 MIL to get 20fs + 4x2mil Concentrate = 17.7 MIL to get 27fs.
    But you will hit 3 times duo which means 3x10 = 30mil market value = 30m - 17.7mil = 12.3 Mil profit.


    CONCLUSION:
    To use up to 27fs reblath you lose 20 MIL but if you do with PRI you gain 12 MIL. Though they wont probably sell now because of boss armors. But people use green gear to get +30-40 fs for boss weapons, selling DUOS would probably gave you little profit back then 12 MIL after tax cats, even though that would been dumb.

    But since you gain in value you should start DUO green gear already at 15-18fs instead actually 21 of which this example is based on. I also wrote this because I was bored.
     
    Buddypal likes this.
  2. Buddypal

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    I did alot of Boss Gear +15 runs with failstacks counting 80+. In the end i force.


    I did more TET oneshots (same chance as +15) as +15 oneshots.
     
    Thugarin likes this.
  3. RandomHajile

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    yea my dude said just force, and generally I would except for 1 dura stuff. If it's a fortua or w/e it's a no brainer to force. I think building fail stacks on reb is pretty safe if you stop at the right point, but I do think you're not wrong. I also had your thought and I definitely involve pris right after. I was at 15 FS on reb and about to move to pri, then I was like nahh I'll do the reb a few more clicks. BAM enhance. Did reb back to 15 again, switched to pri. BAM enhance. haha.

    The cool thing about enhancing in BDO is you can insulate yourself from losses, almost to the point where building an epic fail stack and using it on a 35% or whatever success... then failing would be the worst loss. but Since you fail, if you have enough Boss tris or whatever, assuming you don't blow up an accessory, you can just keep going down the line until you pop one. Obviously you are still losing some but stuff can be made back.

    I read the boink theory and was intrigued, but I forgot you can repair dura w/ the same item haha. So I had a tough time for a day until someone reminded me. I like your post and I think more posts on this should be made. I posed the question "How much do you think the value of a valks/fail stack number" is, and I would love to see people try to answer that and give a reasoning.

    Edit: another reason for +14 force is it kind of creates a waterslide into +15, pri and maybe even duo, all of which are easier and no chance of degrade. I did this pushing a uru shoes I got on a drop to TRI (UGH) from 0... except I didn't force, but I got lucky to get thru 14.

    All those items on the market that are Pri x value, duo +millions make no sense to me.
     
  4. Smileybones

    Smileybones Ranger 62 NA

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    Alternatively you can use guaranteed blackstones which make a +14 to +15 upgrade cost exactly 30 mem frags on boss gear and next to nothing on lower grade items.
     
  5. RandomHajile

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    yea I haven't had much luck acquiring those en masse, but I don't do world bosses all the time.
     
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  6. Khondo

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    I average 10 per week, but I do a lot of world bosses.
     
  7. RandomHajile

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    that's still not even enough to push 1 tho tbh, + you gotta do 30 memshards. Might be better to either roll the dice w/ fail stacks or just completely force. Obviously, though, if you have them laying around... haha. Like I said I've been lucky to where I pushed my stuff through without forcing. Might have taken a dura hit, but I got it thru.
     
  8. Boink

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    What? 30s? How do they make faillstack outside that region? Failstack on boss armor is soo expensive.

    Do players really sell DUO's I use greens to FS.

    P.S. I been wanting to change figures with my guide Reblath FSing up to 16 (since it's much more convenient that way and don't have to repair it to parse outside it). Also it was an old number due to the rarity of Hard Black Crystals a.k.a. Concentrated Magical Black Stone (armor). But yea your math makes more sense these days.

    Imma yoink this number and turn it into 16 FS :)

    I get a lot of them from nouver and kutum sometimes they drop 2 flawless stones[​IMG]

    I have like 394 :)
     
  9. zeezero

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    I see a bit of a flaw in your logic.
    You can't really count the profit of gaining a duo green.
    Only if you sell it, but typically the duo green will just be converted to 4 fs.

    And if you count the profit of the duo green, then you have to count the cost of aquiring a pri green every time.

    So I think it ends up being a loser.
     
  10. Boink

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    Everything that deals with low percentage compare to it's payout are typically a bad bet. Especially dealing with TET and Above boss weapons and armor. This includes the Black Star rates unless settling on TET which can be productive AP - GS wise.

    It ends up being a loser bet most of the time unless really lucky or the power of Credit Card - Cron spam and artisans babyyyy.
     
  11. zhagsten

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    That's not how you calculate the costs at all. When you fail and get a +15, you may get your fail on first click or on 20 to 21 fs attempt. It's not the same cost at all, and you forgot cleansing costs.
     
  12. Zaoo

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    You forgot fact that you need get +30 fs for boss armors. And that I sold plenty 300+ mil tet grunils hitting at 30-40fs. So yeah I stick to my point that going over +18 fs on reblath is dumb. Everytime you hit duo or tri it has correct market asset value.

    This whole topic was about is 20-30 fs on rablath worth it. Its not and I gave math for proof. You can give me your math if you disargree.
     

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